Country Risk Outlooks

Our annual Country Risk Outlooks are produced on demand, allowing you to purchase an up-to-date report, evaluating the 1-2 year operating environment within the context of a 5 year business plan. Country Risk Outlooks pinpoint major risks and opportunities in the country concerned, and provide you with economic projections for a range of variables as well as useful background information to enable you to make informed decisions.

Our country risk analysis has predicted many important developments in recent years including the Icelandic crisis, the severity of the global financial crisis and rising tensions between Argentina and the UK concerning the Falklands Islands.

Country Risk Outlooks are available for more than 180 countries worldwide and normally include the following information (please contact us for further details):

Political Risk

  • Current domestic political overview and outlook – discussion of current government and political leaders, as well as any forthcoming elections, outlining their likely impact on social stability and the operating environment over a 1-2 year forecast horizon.
  • Discussion of the main domestic policy agenda – where applicable to country risk.
  • Impact of foreign policy.

 

Economic Risk

  • Global overview.
  • Economic policy outlook (fiscal policy, monetary policy and any relevant structural reform process).
  • Analysis of main macroeconomic variables (including national accounts, inflation, government budget balance, balance of payments, external debt, FX reserves, interest rates, exchange rates etc).
  • Forecasts of main macroeconomic indicators plus comparison forecasts where relevant, from IMF, OECD, European Commission, Asian Development Bank, World Bank etc.
  • Analysis of financial sector risks – including reference to bank lending figures provided by the Bank for International Settlements and IMF indicators of financial stability where available.

 

Business Risk

  • Analysis of business regulatory environment – with reference to World Bank survey.
  • Analysis of country competitiveness – to include discussion of tax regime and relevant competitiveness surveys/rankings.
  • Other business risks – terrorism, weather, software piracy etc, as relevant to country.

 

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