Forecasts

Our Own Forecasts

MJEconomics has over 20 years’ experience of predicting economies worldwide. Great care and attention is paid to our forecasting output, which is based on solid macroeconomic principles and data quality, and forms part of our country risk service. Over 180 countries worldwide are monitored regularly in-house, with short term (2-year) projections included for ja limited set of variables in our monthly Country Risk Updates (available on subscription). A complete set of medium-term (5-year) forecasts is included in each of our annual Country Risk Outlooks. MJEconomics can also provide bespoke forecasts, such as 5 and 10 year projections on a quarterly basis (please enquire for details).

 

Official Forecasts

MJEconomics regularly collates the forecasts produced by quasi-government institutions (such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Commission (EC), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and World Bank on a range of important variables, such as GDP growth, inflation and budget and current account balances. We calculate simple averages (or consensus forecasts) of these forecasts, which are released on an occasional basis to website members in our regular Business Briefs, as well as made available for download in the data area of our website.

 

Consensus Surveys

MJEconomics has been conducting monthly surveys of prestigious independent economic forecasters for the overlapping Euro Zone and Nordic regions for over ten years. The results are published in Euro Zone Barometer and Nordic Barometer, which are sent out to subscribers by e-mail in PDF format, with the preliminary results rushed out first as Excel versions. Both publications are available as part of a website membership subscription.

Forecasters taking part in our surveys include major financial firms and other independent institutions specialising in Euro Zone and/or Nordic economics, such as: BBVA, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Danske Bank, DZ Bank, the Economist Intelligence Unit, Grupo Santander, HSBC, IHS Global Insight, JP Morgan Chase, Lloyds Bank Group, Morgan Stanley, Nordea, Oxford Economics, SEB and Societe Generale, among others.

Along with historical data, text analysis and charts, the publications include individual and consensus forecasts (arithmetic mean and median averages) for the Euro Zone and Nordic regions as a whole as well as the main constituent countries.

A range of variables are covered, including:

  • The complete expenditure breakdown of the national accounts (GDP, private consumption, government consumption, gross fixed investment, exports and imports of goods and services and the contributions of both stockbuilding and net exports to GDP growth).
  • Other ‘real economy’ variables (where available): industrial production, retail sales volume, unemployment rate, M3 money supply, consumer prices, producer prices, labour costs, current account balance and general government budget balance.
  • Financial variables: 3-month Euribor rate, 10 year benchmark government bond yield, Brent oil prices and exchange rates.

The publications also include:

  • Comparison forecasts by government and quasi-government forecasters, including the European Central Bank, European Commission, IMF and OECD.
  • ECB/Central Bank Watch – a poll in which our panellists estimate the probability of movements in the main policy interest rates.
  • Long term (five-year) forecasts for a range of variables, updated four times per year.
  • Quarterly forecasts for a range of variables, updated every month.
  • Comparison forecasts by government and quasi-government forecasters, including the European Central Bank, European Commission, IMF and OECD.
  • ECB Watch – a poll in which our panellists estimate the probability of movements in the euro zone policy rate at the ECB Council’s next two meetings.
  • Long term (five-year) forecasts for a range of variables, updated four times per year.
  • Quarterly forecasts for a range of variables, updated every month.

 

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