MJEconomics > Forecasts

Forecasts

Our Own Forecasts

MJEconomics has over 20 years’ experience of predicting economies worldwide. Great care and attention is paid to our forecasting output, which is based on solid macroeconomic principles and data quality, and forms part of our country risk service. We can provide short term projections for the current year and the year ahead for a limited set of variables as part of our Country Risk service (available on subscription). MJEconomics can also provide bespoke forecasts, such as 5 and 10 year projections on a quarterly basis (please enquire for details).

 

Official Forecasts

MJEconomics regularly collates the forecasts produced by quasi-government institutions (such as the European Commission (EC), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and World Bank on a range of important variables, such as GDP growth, inflation and budget and current account balances.

 

Consensus Surveys

MJEconomics has been conducting monthly surveys of prestigious independent economic forecasters for the overlapping Euro Zone and Nordic regions for more than 20 years. The results are published in Euro Zone Barometer and Nordic Barometer, which are sent out to subscribers by e-mail in PDF format, with the preliminary results rushed out first as Excel versions. Both publications are available as part of a membership subscription.

Forecasters taking part in our surveys are all experts working at major financial firms or other independent institutions specialising in Euro Zone and/or Nordic economics, such as: BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Danske Bank, DZ Bank, the Economist Intelligence Unit, HSBC, IHS Global Insight, JP Morgan Chase, LC Macro Advisors, Main Sky Asset Management, Morgan Stanley, NG Consulting, Nordea, Oxford Economics, Santander, SEB and UBS, among others.

Along with historical data, text analysis and charts, the publications include individual and consensus forecasts (arithmetic mean and median averages) for the Euro Zone and Nordic regions as a whole as well as the main constituent countries.

A range of variables are covered, including:

  • The complete expenditure breakdown of the national accounts: GDP, private consumption, government consumption, gross fixed investment, exports and imports of goods and services and the contributions of both inventories (stockbuilding) and net exports to GDP growth.
  • Other ‘real economy’ variables (where available): industrial production, retail sales volume, unemployment rate, M3 money supply, consumer prices, producer prices, labour costs, current account balance, and general government budget balance and gross debt.

Financial variables: 3-month Euribor rate, 10 year benchmark government bond yield, Brent oil prices and exchange rates.

The publications also include:

  • Comparison forecasts by government and quasi-government forecasters, including the European Central Bank, European Commission, IMF and OECD.
  • ECB/Central Bank Watch – a poll in which our panellists estimate the probability of movements in the main policy interest rates.
  • Long term (five-year) forecasts for a range of variables, updated four times per year.
  • Quarterly forecasts for a range of variables, updated every month.